Chances of getting 5 golden legendaries in a single pack?

Chances of getting 5 golden legendaries in a single pack? - Yellow Fish in Close-up Photography

I found this forum post about chances of getting legendaries.

Quote:

  • 1 Rare each 0,85 to 0,90 packs

  • 1 Epic each +- 5 packs

  • 1 Legendary each +- 20 packs

Golden:

2% Chance of Golden Common (1 Every 50 Cards)

1% Chance of Golden Rare (1 Every 100 Cards)

0.25% Chance Golden Epic (1 Every 400 Cards)

0.05% Golden Legendary (1 Every 2000 Cards)

Where a golden legendary is 0.0005% chance per card in a pack.

I assume getting 5 golden legendaries would be 0.0005% x 0.0005% x 0.0005% x 0.0005% x 0.0005%.

But I'm not sure.



Best Answer

Only considering your information you would be correct. Your information assume that any probability of a card being a (golden) legendary is independent from the probabilities of other cards.

However, this doesn't seem to be the case. On reddit somebody analyzed the probabilities of getting legendaries. Quote:

The probability is increasing as the amount of packs increases and it also shows a significant gain after 30 packs.

I don't know if there is some official source confirming the existence of such a Pity Timer as it is called there.

Thus, the probability of getting a legendary appears not to be the same for every card and, consequently, does not seem to be independent from other probabilities. That means the calculation is probably much more complicated than just (0.05%)^5.




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How many packs does it take to get a legendary?

A Legendary item is guaranteed to drop in the next Pack after 29 Packs are opened without finding any. Thematic Packs do not count towards this.

Do you get a legendary every 10 packs?

Whenever a new expansion set is released, you are guaranteed to receive a Legendary card within your first 10 packs opened for that set, regardless of how the packs were obtained.

How much gold do you get for a legendary?

To sum up, you can get up to 10,650\xd74 = 42,600 Gold every month = 1 Legendary Card.

How many packs do you need for full collection Hearthstone?

Here's a post on Reddit that goes into the math a little more deeply, but the number is probably somewhere around 450 packs (again, assuming you are only getting the Legendaries from packs and not as rewards or from buying bundles). Go to Youtube and look for Hearthstone Mathematics.



Hearthstone: 5 GOLDEN LEGENDARIES IN ONE PACK (NOT)




Sources: Stack Exchange - This article follows the attribution requirements of Stack Exchange and is licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0.

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