Identifying mistakes/weak-points in my approach to TvP

TL;DR: TvP is my worst matchup and I've been reviewing my replays in order to identify my mistakes / what I ought to do differently next time. However, I'm starting to question whether I'm going about things correctly as I don't seem to be faring any better in this particular matchup. I'd appreciate folks' input on this particular game with regards to what I could have done better in this game, so I can compare it against my self-analysis (below).

Background:
In an effort to improve at TvP (my worst match-up by far), I've begun (an attempt to) review and analyze my replays with an eye toward finding key mistakes that cost me the game. In many instances, macro was the culprit. However, in recent games, I'm starting to think that it's my approach to engagements (w/ his army) that is to blame.

For context, I am in silver league, with just over 200 or so games under my belt. I started playing SC2 midway through 2015 Season 1.

Take for example, this game I played earlier today. I've reviewed the replay and attempted to identify the reasons I lost the game but I would appreciate if folks could confirm, correct and/or supplement my analysis. (Your comments would help me help myself when reviewing future replays, if that makes any sense).

Synopsis:

The game starts off with my opponent attempting a cannon rush at my natural. I pull SCVs to take out the warping cannons but the cannons do warp (albeit with limited HP remaining) and I end up losing 4-5 SCVs in the process - given the SCV losses, I think I'm marginally ahead at best (due to the fact I began constructing a second CC in my main and I think I can expand much sooner than my opponent).
The game then enters enters an economy-building phase. At around the 12 minute mark, I attack his natural with a marauder-heavy bio army (which I discovered in the replay had a 25-supply lead on his stalker-heavy army, which also had zealots). I start my 3rd base as I move out. The timing is later than the usual 10 minute push but I figured that we were both set back by the cannon rush. He was slightly ahead on upgrades - he had +1 attack & +1 shields, while I had +1 attack and stim but I decided to attack after seeing I had a larger army, a large part of which countered his (i.e., my marauders vs. his stalkers). However, after a few quick warp-ins to replenish to his lost stalkers along with Photon Overcharge, I decided at the time that I didn't think I could trade effectively with him so I elected to retreat.
The game then entered the late-game phase - up until this point, I've been able to simply overwhelm my Protoss opponent with macro/sheer numbers, but as my opponents have been getting better (this opponent was gold in 2015 Season 1; the previous season's ranking is probably more accurate than his current ranking given the ladder reset at the beginning of this season), this has proved more difficult. Nevertheless, I think it's more useful to look at the first 15 minutes of play, given that is where Terran would ideally have ended the game.

I think I made two big mistakes:

I think my first big mistake was not preventing him from expanding to his natural. He expands quite a while after I expand and, although photon overcharge would have prevented me from destroying his main, I think I could have contained him to one base.
I think my second big mistake was retreating during my attack at the 12-min mark. After watching the replay, I think I probably could have taken out his natural (albeit at the cost of most that army).

Other self-critiques:

I elected to add more barracks and make marauders/marines in lieu of medivacs prior to my 12 minute push because I thought that higher numbers would give me a better chance.
Related to the previous point - following this decision to go for a more mineral heavy army, I ought to have reallocated SCVs away from gas and toward minerals. Although my overall spending quotient (67), it is largely due to the fact that I ended up banking gas. My SQ for minerals and gas separately was 82 (which could be better but is also not terrible) and 48 (which is just terrible), respectively. (As reference, my opponent's SQ was 57, with a mineral SQ of 54 and a gas SQ of 61, but I don't know if this metric is as relevant for Protoss given the warp-in dynamic.)
Lastly, I think I ought to have taken a 4th much sooner - possibly immediately after my 3rd base, given I was able to saturate my 3rd base instantly.
At this point (around the 15 minute mark), I stopped my analysis given that it seems pointless to analyze late-game mistakes which wouldn't have occurred if it hadn't been for my early and mid-game mistakes.

I would appreciate any thoughts/comments/criticisms. This particular matchup (TvP) is proving to be the most difficult one for me (by far).

starcraft-2

Best Answer

So you scout a cannon rush and it looks like you just panic and are unsure what to do. It's at your natural there's no need for any alarm at all, just snipe his probe and then you can just leave it, you can kill it off later. You're reaction is bad, because you were about to expand realized you couldn't there and just floated all that money. You also wasted a lot of money by 1. not mining with all those workers and 2. losing a LOT of workers. 6 workers at this stage of the game is a HUGE deal. You are incredibly far behind at this point.

There were several options available to you after killing his probe. You could have focused the top cannon with your workers and reaper, this would have caused it to die before completing, this way you could go back to mining and let the reaper just kill off the pylon and then the cannon. Meanwhile you can expand a little further away in your natural so that the cannons can't reach (and ideally can't see) it. Never lose workers in this sort of situation.

I don't think that that would've been the best choice however. A better choice would be to send your reaper directly to your enemy, after going forge first, there's no way there can be a stalker or moco out, and I'd nearly guarantee that you got a decent number of worker kills, it depends on if they put down 0,1 or 2 cannons down to defend.

With the reaper off to kill off helpless probes, you can either, expand, or put down a few more raxes, say 3 more and just go for a quick push, with all the money they spent on static defenses, there's no way that they could have an army that could stop yours, obviously cannons would bolster their defensive capacity but it's unlikely that you would do no damage, at the very least you can stop them from expanding or even making too many buildings, without cannons to protect everything you will likely be able to pick off some outlying buildings.

At this point you're very far behind and you should've been 100% unable to win, the only reason I'd say you still have a chance is because they are doing a terrible job of making workers and you have actually caught back up in workers (actually surpassed him). If they had good macro you're reaction would've cost you the game, but this isn't the case so you are still in it.

You're supply blocks are holding you back quite a lot.

With how far behind their army must be due to that cannon rush, you should be being aggressive with your army, poking around seeing what damage you can do.

If you're going for a stim timing; by the time stim finishes, your army should be at their base. You're attack goes quite well regardless, I don't think you should've pulled back, you could've done a tonne of damage, probably even won the game. But it's okay to pull back ofcourse since you engaged well and came out ahead of that. But you are using stim so you're units take a lot of damage, you need to go back home and be defensive until you get medivacs to heal them up.

(also you're floating a lot of money at this stage)

Then you walk into a few storms and lose.

Except that he decides to attack your planetary, if you reacted a bit faster with the repairing and the sending of your army you would've dominated that fight, as all the zealots and archons are on the wrong side and attacking the pf instead of your units. You do okay in the fight regardless.

Then walk into a storm and lose.

You really need those medivacs a lot sooner.

Another thing which plays quite a big impact, is that you never rally reinforcing troops. This would've helped you so much a few times in this game. Either make sure to constantly collect them from your rally point, or you can shift the rally point, click first somewhere near your base to set it as normal, then hold shift and set it on a few of your army units. (make sure you add them to your control group when they get near)

By this stage you're way too far behind in upgrades and sheer army numbers to have a chance of winning. (ouch that last storm)