Probability of catching a pokemon
Does anyone know how the catch probability gauge works in Pokemon shuffle? I assumed the number displayed on it was the probability to catch the pokemon, however, I have recently done a "level combat" where the gauge increases by 1 every time I play, and I managed to catch the pokemon after 23 rounds. According to my calculations, I had under 5% chance of not catching it at this point, and normally (50% chance) I should've caught it around round 13.
Was I just unlucky this time, or does the gauge represent something else?
Edit: I just had another level combat, and this time I succeeded after round 25. This time, the pokemon got angry and skipped levels 6-9, but even after the correction the result is clearly skewed to my disadvantage. This is by no means a rant, it's an explanation why I'm reluctant to accept the otherwise fine and informative answer.
Best Answer
After reading this article, from my understanding, the catch rate of the pokemon is what is shown in the screen.
There are two things that affect the catch rate, the Pokémon's base catch rate, which is the section of the gauge that increases first after defeating the Pokémon, and the bonus catch rate, this increases depending on how many moves/how much time you have left after the Pokémon has been defeated.
This means if the gauge says "95%" then there is a 95% chance of catching that Pokémon. But that also means there is a 5% chance you will not catch that Pokémon. Unfortunately, you just got unlucky that time, but hope is not lost because you are able to retry as many times as you like.
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Pokémon Maths (Algorithms behind Catch rates)
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