Probability of getting a 'better than average' tame

I'm trying to ascertain the probability of getting an 'above average' tame. For this question, I will use an example of taming a level 120 wild sabertooth.

I play on a difficulty 1.0 server, which mean wild dinos have a top wild level of 120. With a perfect tame, these become level 179.

Now as I understand it, there are 7 attributes for a sabertooth :

Heath

Stamina

Oxygen

Food

Weight

Damage

Speed

A freshly tamed 179 sabertooth will have 179 levels randomly assigned to any/all of these attributes. This, on 'average', will be between 25 and 26 levels each. For example :

25 Health + 25 Stamina + 25 Oxygen + 26 Food + 26 Weight + 26 Damage + 26 Speed = 179 points in total

However it is possible that a 179 tame will come out with random attributes such as :

32 Health + 20 Stamina + 12 Oxygen + 17 Food + 28 Weight + 35 Damage + 35 Speed = 179 points in total

A rather nice tame, with 4 attributes above average.

My question

What is the probability that a single attribute (e.g. Health) will be better than average? Specifically, for this question, that a single attribute will have 32 or more points assigned to it after a tame?

Aside note : The attributes Food, Oxygen and Speed are typically useless for a tame except in special circumstances (also Speed will always come out at a fixed number, irrespective of how many points are assigned to it immediately after taming). So :

Bonus question

What is the probability that a single attribute of either Health, Stamina, Weight and Damage will have 32 or more points assigned to it immediately after a tame?

Information for finding wild levels

For those people that do not know how to work out what points have been assigned to a freshly tamed dino, please look at the calculator on the wiki page here : Sabertooth Wild Stats Level-up

For example a freshly tamed 179 sabertooth with the follow stats have the following wild levels :

Health : 1815.1 = 28 levels

Stamina : 540 = 17 levels

Oxygen : 585 = 29 levels

Food : 4687.1 = 29 levels

Weight : 292 = 23 levels

Damage : 242.8 = 29 levels

Speed : Always 130 = 23 levels (whatever remaining levels are left over)

ark-survival-evolved

Best Answer

Whilst this is not the answer I'm looking for, as it doesn't include fraction percetiles and the working out of how those probabilities are calculated, I feel that my ongoing investigation is more suited to an answer rather than being as part of the question. It also breaks the question down from being monolithic and provides a quick look up for any players looking for a quick, rough and ready, answer to the question.

Ongoing investigation

Whilst waiting for a more scientific answer, I've put together a small application that calculates the chance that any single attribute point will be above a certain value. Here are the results of 1,000,000 level 179 sabertooths:

Any attribute

Any attribute level 27 or greater : 99.9%

Any attribute level 28 or greater : 99.6%

Any attribute level 29 or greater : 97.1%

Any attribute level 30 or greater : 89.6%

Any attribute level 31 or greater : 77.0%

Any attribute level 32 or greater : 61.5%

Any attribute level 33 or greater : 45.9%

Any attribute level 34 or greater : 32.4%

Any attribute level 35 or greater : 21.7%

So looking here, any single 179 sabertooth tame would have ~61.5% chance of getting a single attribute at level 32 or more.

Here are results from a similar test, but concerned with only attributes Heath, Stamina, Weight and Damage:

Health, Stamina, Weight or Damage

Any attribute level 27 or greater : 97.3%

Any attribute level 28 or greater : 93.4%

Any attribute level 29 or greater : 86.5%

Any attribute level 30 or greater : 76.5%

Any attribute level 31 or greater : 64.2%

Any attribute level 32 or greater : 51.1%

Any attribute level 33 or greater : 38.5%

Any attribute level 34 or greater : 27.6%

Any attribute level 35 or greater : 19.1%

Interestingly, a 179 sabertooth would have a just over 50% chance of getting a worthwhile attribute of 32 levels or more.

Whilst I could go on and expand upon these tests with the chances that Health, Stamina and Damage attributes would be each above a certain number of levels, I wont. That is what the Ark Survival Evolved Breeding mechanic is used for.

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Probability of getting a 'better than average' tame

Best Answer

Pictures about "Probability of getting a 'better than average' tame"

Math Antics - Basic Probability

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