What motivates my rivals during Conquests?

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When competing for a field, the player can choose to compete in a festival or compete via shipping. For the shipping options, what determines how much my rivals ship?
If an exact formula isn't known, it would still be useful to know which factors definitely do or definitely do not affect a rival's performance.
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Top 10 Tips to Being a Better Commander - Acting On Instinct | Command and Conquer Rivals
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